The UN Food and Agriculture Organization has released a report (PDF) at their March 5-8 Cairo conference that has warned of danger to the Middle East, Asia Minor and North Africa due to climate change (referred to, collectively, in the report, as the 'Near East Region'):
Photo: Ship stranded in the Aral Sea, Kazakhstan
The number of dry days is conjectured to increase everywhere in the region, with the exception of some central- Saharan areas. The number of frost days should decrease everywhere, while heat waves could increase in the Region’s more continental areas. The length of growing seasons (LGSs) should decrease. ~snip~
In all scenarios, the highest impacts are in Africa, the Middle East, India and Southeast Asia. Once temperatures increase by 3°C, 250 to 550 million additional people may be at risk worldwide – more than half in Africa and Western Asia – particularly where the declines in yield are greatest, dependence on agriculture highest and purchasing power most limited. Yields of the key crops across Africa and Western Asia may fall 15 to 35 percent.
The report raises concern for the entire region, decreased precipitation for areas that have already experienced drought, increased precipitation in others: "Heavy precipitation events and an increase in the proportion of total rainfall that comes from heavy events are “very likely”, and it is “likely” that more areas will be affected by droughts and tropical cyclones." The picture is one of an impact, region-wide, of increasing instability that will lead to a decline in agriculture in a region already beset by hunger and troubling geopolitics...